Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix (2024)

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix

What's This?

Product Description Document

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the Philadelphia/Mt Holly forecast area. This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE. Additional information on this project and variable definitionscan be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA'sNearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

Eastern Monmouth
Coastal Ocean
Coastal Atlantic
Atlantic Coastal Cape May
Delaware Beaches

Eastern Monmouth

Date Wed 07/10 Thu 07/11 Fri 07/12EDT 3hrly 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14Rip Current Risk Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod ModRip Probability 62 56 36 57 75 68 43 45 66 70 53 65 76 76 59 55Surf Height (ft) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2Dom Period (s) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3Chance Precip 5 5 20 60 40 10 10 10 10 20 20 50 50 60 60 70TSTM Potential None None None High Mod None None None None None Low Mod Mod High High HighCloud Cover Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld PcldTemperature 79 76 75 75 74 76 78 80 81 79 77 76 74 76 77 77Heat Index Wind (mph) S 23 S 22 S 21 S 20SW 16SW 13SW 13 S 15 S 17 S 13 SW 9 SW 7 SW 5 SW 6 S 7 S 10Wind Gust 33 31 30 28 21 18 20 22 23 Date Sat 07/13 Sun 07/14 Mon 07/15EDT 6hrly 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17Rip Probability 68 48 63 49 55 50 49 37 24 30 21 26 14Surf Height (ft) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Dom Period (s) 2 2 2 MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MMChance Precip 70 60 70 50 30 20 10 10 10 10 5 5 20TSTM Potential High High High Mod Mod MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MMCloud Cover Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr MclrTemperature 77 75 73 75 78 75 73 79 81 76 74 81 84Heat Index 86 90Wind (mph) S 10 S 9 S 8 S 8 S 7 SW 5 W 3 S 6 S 10 SW 8 SW 7 SW 9SW 12Wind Gust 15 13 12 18

Coastal Ocean

Date Wed 07/10 Thu 07/11 Fri 07/12EDT 3hrly 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14Rip Current Risk Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod ModRip Probability 53 53 48 56 65 61 52 53 62 64 60 63 67 67 62 60Surf Height (ft) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Dom Period (s) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5Chance Precip 5 5 10 50 50 20 20 10 20 40 40 60 60 70 70 70TSTM Potential None None None Mod Mod Low Low None Low Mod Mod High High High High HighCloud Cover Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld PcldTemperature 77 75 74 74 73 74 77 77 78 76 75 74 73 74 76 76Heat Index Wind (mph) S 23 S 22 S 22 S 22SW 18SW 15SW 14 S 17 S 18 S 15 S 10 SW 8 S 7 S 7 S 9 S 13Wind Gust 33 30 31 29 24 21 21 24 25 Date Sat 07/13 Sun 07/14 Mon 07/15EDT 6hrly 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17Rip Probability 63 55 60 54 57 54 49 42 33 39 30 33 30Surf Height (ft) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Dom Period (s) 3 3 4 MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MMChance Precip 70 50 70 50 30 20 20 10 10 10 5 5 10TSTM Potential High Mod High Mod Mod MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MMCloud Cover Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr MclrTemperature 76 74 72 75 76 75 72 79 80 75 73 80 82Heat Index 84 88Wind (mph) S 12 S 10 S 8 SW 9 S 8 SW 6 W 5 SW 6 S 12 S 9 SW 8SW 12 S 15Wind Gust 22

Coastal Atlantic

Date Wed 07/10 Thu 07/11 Fri 07/12EDT 3hrly 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14Rip Current Risk Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod ModRip Probability 61 57 50 60 67 64 54 54 63 64 58 62 66 65 60 58Surf Height (ft) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1Dom Period (s) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5Chance Precip 5 5 20 50 50 20 20 10 20 40 40 60 60 70 70 60TSTM Potential None None Low Mod Mod Low Low None Low Mod Mod High High High High HighCloud Cover Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld McldTemperature 76 74 72 72 72 73 76 77 76 73 73 72 72 72 74 75Heat Index Wind (mph) S 21 S 21 S 21 S 21SW 16SW 13SW 13 S 15 S 15 S 12 S 9 S 8 S 7 S 8 S 10 S 12Wind Gust 32 30 30 29 22 20 20 22 23 17Date Sat 07/13 Sun 07/14 Mon 07/15EDT 6hrly 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17Rip Probability 64 55 62 56 60 54 51 41 32 40 34 38 30Surf Height (ft) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2Dom Period (s) 3 3 4 MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MMChance Precip 60 50 70 50 30 20 20 10 10 5 5 5 10TSTM Potential High Mod High Mod Mod MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MMCloud Cover Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Mclr MclrTemperature 75 73 71 73 76 74 71 79 80 74 72 80 82Heat Index 87Wind (mph) S 10 S 9 S 8 SW 8 S 8 SW 5 W 3 SW 6 S 10 S 8 SW 7SW 10 S 14Wind Gust 15 15 13 12 16 21

Atlantic Coastal Cape May

Date Wed 07/10 Thu 07/11 Fri 07/12EDT 3hrly 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14Rip Current Risk Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod ModRip Probability 74 70 60 72 81 76 61 61 74 77 68 70 79 78 69 66Surf Height (ft) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1Dom Period (s) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4Chance Precip 5 5 20 50 60 20 20 10 20 40 40 70 70 70 70 70TSTM Potential None None Low Mod High Low Low Low Low Mod Mod High High High High HighCloud Cover Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld McldTemperature 77 75 74 73 73 74 77 78 78 75 74 74 73 73 75 76Heat Index Wind (mph) S 21 S 21 S 21 S 20SW 15SW 12SW 10 S 12 S 14 S 10 S 9 S 7 S 7 S 8 S 10 S 12Wind Gust 32 30 29 28 20 18 17 18 20 15 Date Sat 07/13 Sun 07/14 Mon 07/15EDT 6hrly 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17Rip Probability 75 65 73 67 69 60 57 47 36 47 40 46 32Surf Height (ft) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Dom Period (s) 3 3 3 MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MMChance Precip 70 50 70 50 30 20 20 10 10 5 5 5 10TSTM Potential High Mod High Mod Mod MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MMCloud Cover Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Mclr MclrTemperature 76 73 72 75 77 74 72 79 80 75 73 80 82Heat Index 88Wind (mph) S 10 S 9 S 8 SW 8 S 8 SW 5 W 3 SW 6 S 10 S 8 SW 7 SW 9 S 12Wind Gust 15 13 12 18

Delaware Beaches

Date Wed 07/10 Thu 07/11 Fri 07/12EDT 3hrly 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14Rip Current Risk Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low LowRip Probability 35 34 26 29 39 34 22 20 33 40 32 31 43 44 33 30Surf Height (ft) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Dom Period (s) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4Chance Precip 5 5 20 50 60 40 30 30 40 50 50 70 70 70 70 70TSTM Potential None None Low Mod High Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod Mod High High High High HighCloud Cover Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld McldTemperature 80 79 78 77 76 76 79 79 80 80 77 77 76 76 78 77Heat Index Wind (mph) S 21 S 20 S 18 S 16 S 13 SW 9 SW 8SE 12 S 14 S 10 S 8 S 8 S 7 S 9 S 10 S 12Wind Gust 29 28 26 24 15 14 15 17Date Sat 07/13 Sun 07/14 Mon 07/15EDT 6hrly 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17 23 05 11 17Rip Probability 37 31 36 34 26 24 20 17 11 16 13 16 9Surf Height (ft) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Dom Period (s) 3 3 3 MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MMChance Precip 70 50 70 60 40 20 20 10 10 5 5 5 10TSTM Potential High Mod High High Mod MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MMCloud Cover Mcld Mcld Cld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr MclrTemperature 77 76 75 78 80 76 73 80 82 77 74 82 85Heat Index 84 89 88 94Wind (mph) S 12 S 9 S 9 S 9 S 7 S 5 W 3 SW 6 S 9 S 7 SW 7 SW 8 S 10Wind Gust 12 16

Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix (2024)

*** EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE ***

References

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *